Recent studies have identified large areas of the European continent as potentially vulnerable to the future range expansion of P. japonica. Borner et al. (2023) used modelling approaches based on data from already invaded regions (Japan, North America, Azores) to estimate the climatic suitability of various European areas. Their work showed that a substantial part of central Europe, including countries such as Germany, France and Belgium, offers favourable conditions for the beetle's spread, due to its relatively mild climate and the presence of susceptible crops. Northern Italy and Switzerland, both of which are already affected, also remain high-risk areas (Borner et al., 2024).
Northern areas of Europe, characterized by colder temperatures, appear to be at less risk of an immediate infestation, although some studies suggest that occasional introductions through human transport may occur (Borner et al., 2024). Moreover, Borner et al. (2024) indicated that other climatically similar regions to Japan, such as Australia, South Africa, and South America, could also be potential areas for P. japonica expansion, especially in the absence of adequate preventive measures.
REFERENCES:
Borner, L., Martinetti, D., & Poggi, S. (2023). A hitchhiker's guide to Europe: mapping human-mediated dispersal of the invasive Japanese beetle. bioRxiv, 2023-10.
Borner, L., Martinetti, D., & Poggi, S. (2024). A hitchhiker's guide to Europe: mapping human-mediated dispersal of the invasive Japanese beetle. bioRxiv, 2023-10.
